Handicapping The Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

Handicapping The Kentucky Derby Leaderboard

In every Kentucky Derby, there’s plenty of action on every horse in the field. Every pony punter has their favorite (for whatever practical or superstitious or serendipitous reason), and those making exotic wagers like trifectas and superfectas have their strategies for which horses to box in the bet and why. Indeed, handicapping the Kentucky Derby leaderboard – no matter how you do it – is critical to placing a winning bet at the Run for the Roses, and it’s something that both experienced horseplayers and first-time fans do in some way or another.

This year, that kind of handicapping seems a little more difficult than in years past, as the 2018 Kentucky Derby has five or six honest-to-Secretariat contenders in its 20-horse field. There’s Justify, the overall favorite at +300 at most online racebooks, and behind him is the Irish superhorse Mendelssohn (+500), the Amazon-endorsed Audible (+650), the Arkansas Derby-winning Magnum Moon (+750), Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic (+800), and erstwhile Derby favorite Bolt d’Oro (+850). Boxing these five horses for a trifecta is probably a good move, but if you want to get more down to the brass horseshoes, you can handicap each of these magnificent beasts further by looking at how past performers in similar positions have stacked up at Churchill Downs.

Starting with Derby favorite Justify, history is against him, as he went unraced as a two-year-old. The last unraced two-year-old Thoroughbred to win the Kentucky Derby was Apollo. In 1882. In the last 72 years of Derby racing, only eight horses that skipped their two-year-old campaigns even podiumed. If the past is any indication, the current Derby favorite is unlikely to win.

Mendelssohn, considered by many to be on equal footing with Justify as far as endurance and ability, is from Europe (Ireland), and a European-bred horse has never won the Kentucky Derby in its entire 143-year existence. Yes, Mendelssohn is coming off an epic 18.5-length win at the UAE Derby (where he set a course record), but UAE participants are 0-13 at the Kentucky Derby all-time.

Audible, endorsed by Amazon (because why not?), has the backing of a company that rarely delivers on time, so if you’re the superstitious type, this could be a knock. More than that, of course, is the fact that Audible is a New York-bred racehorse, and only one NY native has ever won the Derby (Funny Cide, 2003).

Magnum Moon, despite his million-dollar stakes win in Arkansas, was born in May (as was Mendelssohn), and May-born horses have taken the Derby crown just once in the last 20 years. While some might chalk this up to astrological nonsense, there could be some merit to it re the development and maturation times required for these still-young horses to peak at the exact right time.

Good Magic has no real knocks against him, having two impressive wins against top talent and being a bona fide Kentucky-bred runner. Many horseplayers are looking here for the big upset.

That said, LegalHorseBetting.com knows most horseplayers are looking to Bolt d’Oro to take the rose garland when all is said and done. Initially the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby when futures odds were first posted just two months ago, a loss to Justify in the Santa Anita Stakes last month has led to his significant down-ranking. However, there is plenty of evidence that said loss was an outlier. Bolt d’Oro was plainly not running at full potential, as he was coming off a very grueling race just weeks prior in the San Felipe Stakes (where despite being badly cut off down the home-stretch, he managed to stay neck-and-neck with the disqualified winner, McKinzie).

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